In episode 302 of The Strenuous Life Podcast (my podcast) I do a deep dive into the COVID-19 pandemic with two actual epidemiologists: Dr Katrine Wallace and Madeline Lewis.
Here it is, along with timestamps to relevant sections…
Timestamps
0:00 – Introduction
01:32 – Qualifications of epidemiologists Dr Katrine Wallace and Madeline Lewis
04:30 – Is COVID-19 actually 99.5% survivable?
06:21 – What are the current best estimates of the COVID-19 infection fatality rate and case fatality rates?
09:48 – How important are IFR and CFR in the policy side of things 10:50 – Is COVID-19 no more deadly than the flu?
13:43 – Problems with comparing Covid to the seasonal flu
15:06 – Are scientists under-reporting the flu and/or counting every case or the flu as covid?
21:53 – Do scientists and the CDC want everyone to lock down forever?
23:45 – Did lockdowns work in other countries? 26:16 – Would less intrusive measures work to control COVID-19?
28:42 – Where are the deaths, is this a casedemic, and are there only more cases because of more testing?
31:38 – How long does it take to go from infected, to getting sick, going to the hospital, and dying?
32:44 – When will we see the cases and deaths peak from 2020 Thanksgiving celebrations in the USA?
36:04 – How many people are going to die per day this winter?
36:59 – How infectious is COVID-19 (comparing the R0 value of covid to that of the flu)?
39:56 – Why are the CDC and the WHO changing their stories and the advice they give?
44:19 – Is Hydroxychloroquine as a treatment being suppressed by big pharma?
49:50 – Judging the quality of evidence and data in disease research
55:27 – Are scientists coordinating their findings and suppressing inconvenient findings?
59:21 – Do hospitals get paid more to count deaths as COVID-19?
1:05:14 – Are COVID-19deaths being overcounted or undercounted in the USA?
1:08:16 – Do cloth masks and surgical masks work?
1:13:44 – Are masks enough to stop the pandemic?
1:15:32 – Car accidents deaths vs COVID-19 deaths
1:16:48 – The minimum infectious dose, or will you automatically get sick if you’re exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus?
1:19:11 – How can we have confidence that the vaccine will be safe?
1:29:45 – What about herd immunity, the Swedish approach and the Great Barrington Declaration?
1:37:38 – Potential longterm health effects of COVID-19
1:38:45 – Are personal sacrifices and limitations necessary to deal with the pandemic?
1:42:06 – How can one convince vaccine skeptics?
1:45:12 – Gyms and fitness facilities during the COVID-19
1:51:39 – False dichotomies and false choices in the jiu-jitsu community
1:56:28 – The difference between case numbers and test positivity rates
1:59:33 – How do epidemiologists stay sane in 2020?
(You can also watch Covid Myths Debunked on Youtube, although you should be warned that the comments section there is a cesspool.)
Or you can listen to the audio only version as episode 302 of The Strenuous Life Podcast (my podcast) on any of the podcasting platforms including Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, etc.
Or you can stream just the audio right here on this page using the player below…
How to Get More Dr Katrine Wallace and/or Madeline Lewis
Follow Dr Katrine Wallace on Instagram (@epidemiologistkat), on Tiktok (also @epidemiologistkat), or check out the science she refers to all the time on her Linktree.
Follow Madeline Wallace on Tiktok (@maddy.epidemiology).
Why Am I, A BJJ Guy, Talking About Covid?
I’ve been outspoken about Covid-19 for a long time, but I never wanted to be at the junction of BJJ and an international pandemic.
However in addition to having trained in the martial arts for 40 years I’ve also been a first responder and hazmat technician for 21 years, spent 15 years doing biological research, and have both a BSc and an MSc in biology. I’ve got a very strong grounding in experimental design and statistics, and this has helped me delve into the actual scientific literature about Covid-19 published by scientists from all around the world.
(In short, I’m NOT getting my critical information from the so-called mainstream media!).
In early March 2020 I sounded the COVID alarm in the BJJ community. I then worked with a doctor and BJJ blackbelt to publish (and then update) suggested guidelines for reopening BJJ schools during a pandemic.
I’ve published about the efficacy of masks and tried to get to the bottom of resistance to mask wearing in the United States.
I’ve written about how an individual can decide whether it’s safe to train in a pandemic, the ethics of taking personal risks, the idea of small training pods, and possibly training BJJ outdoors.
In the last 9 months people have sent me death threats, called me a commie traitor, suggested I’m a dupe of mainstream media, proclaimed me a coward, and suggested that I hate jiu-jitsu.
Despite the threats and abuse I’ve continued to argue that Covid-19 IS a real thing and NOT a hoax, scamdemic, or pandemic…
That we can probably prevent lockdowns if we wear masks, avoid indoor gatherings, improve ventilation, and follow basic social distancing… That there are measures that BJJ practitioners and schools can take to make training things a lot safer… And that we in the BJJ community have a moral duty to take care of other people.
That last point is really important.
WE DON’T HAVE THE RIGHT TO TAKE RISKS FOR OTHER PEOPLE!
Even if I’m willing to take personal risks, in a pandemic situation it’s often other people who might end up bearing the consequences of my personal decision.
If I’m asymptomatic but infectious I can still kill some immunocompromised person who can’t stay in her house because she has to go to work to pay the bills. I can kill a diabetic who still needs to take the bus, and I can kill grandma who still needs to go shopping for food.
Living in society has many benefits (paved roads, hospitals, grocery stores, etc), but the price you pay for access to those amenities is not killing or injuring your neighbour.
That’s why we have laws against drunk driving and you’re not allowed to set up an archery range in the middle of Main Street, even though those laws infringe on your personal freedoms very slightly.
I’m going to use my platform to fight for science and rationality even if it costs me every last subscriber.
Be well, and take care of your neighbour
Stephan
Some Classic TikToks by Dr Katrine Wallace!
“The CDC has Admitted that Covid is 99.5% Survivable”
People are often getting this number from hypothetical infection fatality rates in a pandemic planning document. We don’t know what the real IFR is yet. Also people are (often) incorrectly converting ratios into percentages: for example, a death ratio of 0.05 is actually a 5% and not a 0.05% death percentage
View this post on Instagram
“This is a Casedemic. Cases are not Correlated with Deaths”
Nope. Not anymore.
View this post on Instagram
“All the People Who Die from Covid Would Have Died Soon Anyway”
The two studies that have looked at this so far (here and here) have found that, on average, people who died from Covid would have lived an average 12 to 13 more years…
View this post on Instagram
“The CDC is Suppressing Flu Data and Reporting It All as Covid”
Nope. They are actually tracking and reporting the flu, but flu numbers have been low all summer and fall because flu season only starts in November.
“We Only Have More Cases Because We’re Testing More”
In many places the percent positivity rate is going up, and the percentage of tests that are positive doesn’t change because there are more tests. Also you don’t get hospitalisations and deaths unless you get cases first.
View this post on Instagram
“The Scientists Just Want Everyone to Lock Down Forever”
Saying that the only two options are 1) doing nothing vs 2) total lockdowns is a false choice. Public health generally wants to stop the spread of the virus with measures like mask wearing, social distancing and avoiding gatherings. Also curfews are NOT lockdowns.
View this post on Instagram
And here’s part 2…
View this post on Instagram
“Covid Is No More Deadly Than the Flu”
As of October 24th (i.e. in the first 8 months of the epidemic with 2 months of explosive growth left to go) the US had lost more people than in the previous 6 flu seasons.
View this post on Instagram
“The CDC Updated It’s Covid Survival Rate to 99.9999%”
No. People and certain media outlets first took hypothetical survival ratios and then incorrectly converted ratios to percentages.
View this post on Instagram
“But Here’s This One Number from One Report Where the Government Admits to XYZ”
So you’re saying that scientists can’t be trusted except in the one cherry-picked case where what they said in the past supports what you want to do anyway?
View this post on Instagram
“The Government Wants to Ship You Off to Camps”
No, they just want you to be able to separate sick people from healthy people in your own house, student dorm, etc.
View this post on Instagram
“Epidemiologists Also Promote Conspiracies, Just From the Other End of the Spectrum”
Ummm, nope.
View this post on Instagram
“Hospitals Report Cancer Deaths as Covid to Make More Money”
View this post on Instagram
And also this (older video)…
View this post on Instagram
“There Are No Studies that Show Masks Work To Stop the Spread of Covid”
Dr Kat Wallace links to over 70 studies that show that masks are effective in her linktree.
View this post on Instagram
“How Will We Know Vaccines Are Safe?”
There are 3 levels of scrutiny of the data, and independent experts get to see the data that even the pharma companies don’t get to see.
View this post on Instagram
“We Should Allow Children to Get Infected to Reach Herd Immunity”
Children can infect children or adults they live with, we’re not sure that we can reach herd immunity with Covid, and herd immunity is a strategy used with vaccines!
View this post on Instagram
Some Classic TikToks from Epidemiologist Madeline Lewis
Why Can’t We Just Allow Natural Herd Immunity to Occur?
@maddy.epidemiologyReply to @dowdawn ##epidemiology ##epitiktok ##sweden ##herdimmunity ##stem ##publichealth ##politics
Is Covid 99.9% Survivable?
@maddy.epidemiologyReply to @conservativebuddhi ##greenscreen ##epidemiology ##epitiktok ##covid ##wearamask ##politics ##election ##OurType ##makeitmini ##stem ##hankgreen
Do Epidemiologists Just Want to Stop Everyone from Doing Anything Risky?
@maddy.epidemiology##stitch with @thebohoraven why don’t we just stop doing EVERYTHING risky? ##epidemiology ##epitiktok ##publichealth ##risk ##politics ##OurType ##stem
Why Mass Gatherings Are Still Dangerous, Even If They’re to Celebrate a Biden Victory
@maddy.epidemiologymass gatherings are still dangerous ##presidentbiden ##biden2020 ##bluewave ##politics ##election2020 ##massgatherings ##vpharris ##kamalaharris2020 ##joebiden